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COMPREHENSIVE ANALYSIS
Compared with a year ago, in the second quarter world petroleum
demands decrease continuously during four quarters and the
circle expects the petroleum demands to recover in the third
quarter as anticipated. However, the stock market slides greatly
due to a series of accounts’ scandals in large corporations
recently, which brings the negative effects on economic growth
and the future of petroleum demands. IEA is optimistic to the
expectation of world demands’ increase next year but the
increase demands are almost met by non-OPEC’s increase
production. OPEC makes the oil price higher hard in
international market only to make themselves lose the market
shares in recent two and three years. It is lamentable that the
price is in the target scope but the income is reduced to a
great degree.
THE PREDICTION OF OIL PRICE IN THE SECOND HALF
YEAR
OPEC should continue limiting in the third quarter of increase
demand in order to keep the oil price firm. While main non-OPEC
oil-producing states such as Russia and Norway give up the
limiting production, the state of OPEC’s production over quotas
continues and the yield of Iraq increase, which make up the
supplies shortage caused by increase demands seasonally in the
third quarter. Except the reason that increases supplies such as
OPEC’s excessive production, uncertain situation of petroleum
demands is also one of main effects restricting the growth of
oil price in the third quarter.
Under the state that the oil price is kept the OPEC’s target
scope of 22-28 dollars per barrel, OPEC can perhaps tolerate the
member states’ over quotas production. In order to meet the need
of national budgetary outlays, some vital member states, even
including Saudi Arabia and Venezuela continue over-production.
Increase supplies is balanced by seasonally increase demands and
the west storage may continue sustaining the present moderate
level, which means that it hasn’t fundamental changes on the
state that supplies meet demands roughly in present world
petroleum market. For the prediction of oil price, the circle
improves the prediction value of oil price in the third quarter
because OPEC decides to continue limiting production. According
to the predicting investigation from Britain Ages Corporation,
in the third quarter, the average Benchmark oil price will keep
24 dollars per barrel or more.
Figure 8
Prediction of Crude oil’s price in the next twelve months (DRI)
Table 7 Increase
and prediction of GDP in the Asian-Pacific area country（or
areas）（%）
|
|
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002* |
2003* |
|
Singapore |
6.9 |
7.8 |
1.5 |
5.4 |
9.9 |
-2.0 |
3.9 |
5.8 |
|
Taiwan |
6.1 |
6.7 |
4.6 |
5.4 |
5.9 |
-1.9 |
2.7 |
3.6 |
|
Japanese |
3.4 |
0.2 |
-0.8 |
1.4 |
1.5 |
-1.3 |
-0.7 |
0.3 |
|
Hong Kong |
4.5 |
5.0 |
-5.3 |
3.0 |
10.5 |
0.1 |
2.1 |
4.4 |
|
Malaysia |
10.0 |
7.5 |
-7.5 |
5.8 |
8.3 |
0.4 |
4.5 |
5.8 |
|
Sri Lanka |
3.8 |
6.3 |
4.7 |
4.3 |
6.0 |
-1.4 |
3.3 |
5.3 |
|
Thailand |
5.9 |
-1.4 |
-10.5 |
4.4 |
4.6 |
1.8 |
3.9 |
4.0 |
|
Korea |
6.8 |
5.0 |
-6.7 |
10.9 |
9.3 |
3.0 |
6.4 |
6.2 |
|
Philippines |
5.7 |
5.2 |
-0.5 |
3.2 |
4.0 |
3.4 |
3.9 |
4.1 |
|
New Zealand |
3.3 |
2.0 |
-0.2 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
2.5 |
3.4 |
2.8 |
|
Indonesian |
7.8 |
4.6 |
-13.7 |
0.2 |
4.8 |
3.3 |
3.7 |
4.3 |
|
Australia ** |
- |
3.7 |
4.5 |
5.3 |
4.3 |
1.9 |
3.8 |
3.5 |
|
India*** |
7.8 |
4.8 |
6.6 |
6.1 |
4.0 |
5.4 |
5.9 |
6.1 |
|
China |
9.6 |
8.8 |
7.8 |
7.1 |
8.0 |
7.3 |
7.6 |
7.7 |
|
Average |
6.3 |
4.7 |
-1.1 |
4.7 |
6.0 |
1.6 |
3.9 |
4.6 |
*the result of
questionnaire investigation from Reuter for finance and
consultant institution。**fiscal
year up to June next year。***
fiscal year up to March next year。resource
of the document：Reuter，OECD.
Table 8 DRI
Prediction of world petroleum market price in short term
Unit: dollars/barrel
|
|
1Q02 |
2Q02 |
3Q02 |
4Q02 |
1Q03 |
2Q03 |
3Q03 |
4Q03 |
2002 |
2003 |
|
World average |
20.07 |
23.93 |
24.95 |
24.71 |
24.70 |
24.12 |
23.78 |
23.21 |
23.41 |
23.95 |
|
Daily
Benchmark |
21.14 |
25.07 |
25.23 |
25.21 |
25.54 |
24.93 |
24.57 |
23.97 |
24.16 |
24.75 |
|
WTI |
21.55 |
26.27 |
26.68 |
26.52 |
26.99 |
26.66 |
26.27 |
25.61 |
25.26 |
26.38 |
Table 9 Predicting
investigation results of Benchmark oil price by Argus Ltd in
2002
Unit: dollar per barrel
|
Investment bank and counsel company |
Third quarter in 2002 |
Four quarter in 2002 |
|
Global energy research center |
26.00 |
26.50 |
|
Swiss credit first Boston |
23.00 |
23.00 |
|
DBAB |
22.00 |
20.00 |
|
DK瓦瑟斯丁 |
23.00 |
21.00 |
|
波尔文格茨 |
23.60 |
20.25 |
|
RIE |
26.40 |
27.70 |
|
Standard Bank |
25.00 |
22.50 |
|
UBS Warburg |
24.00 |
22.50 |
|
Average predicting results |
24.13 |
23.37 |
Source of the document: English weekly “Global market in
Argus”，July 15, 2002
Aviation kerosene is a kind of oil product suffered from the
greatest impact from “9.11” affairs and it is the first time
that aviation kerosene’s demands have took on a decline trend
since the World War Two. This year it is no hope that aviation
kerosene’s demands recover because some long distance scheduled
flights cancelled are not reverted all through. In addition,
that world economy can’t be recovered produces the negative
effect on aviation kerosene market. According to the prediction
from IEA, the demands of global aviation kerosene market will be
reduced 4.4% this year compared with that of 2001. America is
the largest aviation kerosene market and its consuming amounts
account for 1/3 of the global amounts. In the first half year,
the demands of aviation kerosene in American market are down
8.9% and demands of gasoline are up 1.9%, which will be
continued in the second half year.
 Figure9 Changes of price difference
among aviation kerosene and diesel oil in Singapore market in
1992-2002
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