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 China
Petroleum and Natural Gas Industry Research Report 2002Q2
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International market analysis of oil and
natural gas in the second quarter
OVERVIEW
Since the beginning of this year, the continuous reduction of
OPEC ‘s output and intense situation in Middle East have led to
the oil price up at least a quarter. The price of Benchmark oil
in Britain’s North sea of international standard crude oil rises
from less than 20 dollars per barrel in Jan. to more than 25
dollars at the beginning of July. The escalating strife between
Israel and Palestine and worries on American gasoline supplies
in summer made the oil price up to about 28 dollars per barrel
at the beginning of April. The increasing gasoline storage in
USA and OPEC’s production over quota and the weakness of
geopolitics risk made the oil price fluctuate and decline at the
end of the second quarter. In June OPEC decides to continue the
policy of limiting production in the third quarter of seasonal
increase demands, but it can’t let the oil price up. However,
average benchmark oil price in the second quarter is 25.41
dollars per barrel, still up 18.2% compared with the first
quarter. The average price in the first half year is 23.45
dollars per barrel, down 13% compared with the same period.
The world petroleum demands don’t recover in the second quarter
and it is anticipated that there will be obvious increase in the
third quarter. OPEC’s over-production has made the supplies of
crude oil balance since the second quarter. It is seen that the
situation isn’t changed obviously in the third quarter and it is
impossible that the oil price goes up to a great degree. The
demands in the fourth quarter will be increase. If OPEC doesn’t
increase the output quotas, the practical yield is also
increased, but it is possible that the oil price is up to the
high point since this year due to powerful demands.
Table 1 Annual average price of benchmark oil
price during 1977-2001 and prediction in 2002
|
Time
(year) |
Average
price
($ per
barrel) |
Time
(year) |
Average
price
($ per
barrel) |
|
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1985 |
27.51 |
|
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|
1986 |
14.38 |
|
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|
1987 |
18.43 |
|
|
|
1988 |
14.96 |
First
half in 2002* |
23.45 |
|
1989 |
18.20 |
Second
half in 2002* |
25.00 |
|
1990 |
23.81 |
Whole
year of 2002 * |
24.20 |
The resource of price
document during 1977-1999: BP company, “Annual review of world
energy statistics”. * prediction value.
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